As we prepare for week 5 of the 2017 NFL season, Packernet has decided to put our predictive powers to the test. Each week we will give you our picks and see how we stack up.
*Special guest predictions by Tecmo Bowl, courtesy of Sgt. Nathaniel Buschmann, currently serving in Iraq*
Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) at New York Giants (0-4)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 45.
Ryan’s Pick: Chargers
It’s unbelievable how similar both these teams are. Both teams throw it a lot but are only mediocre at execution. Both teams are completely inept in the run game on both offense and defense. Both teams have given up almost the exact same amount of points to opposing teams and are very similar in points they have put up. Both teams have also given up almost the same amount of pass yards and rush yards. And yes, they are both 0-4.
With that, I simply looked at a Chargers team that has some incredible corners matched up against banged up Giants wide receivers and gave the Chargers the edge.
The Giants also seem extremely volatile. They are as moody as a teenage girl and everything is drama. It’s probably because they live in the “teenage girl” capital of the world, New York. The Chargers aren’t good but they at least have the capacity to just shut up and play football.
Jon’s Pick: Giants
Somebody’s “O” has got to go. Usually we’re saying that about two lossless teams, not two winless teams… I’m not sure why I’m taking the Giants because I can say basically the same things about both teams, I just have a feeling they’ll win. And at least the Giants have players that still remember what a win feels like… the Chargers have lost nine in a row now over two years and two coaching staffs. To me, that suggests there’s something wrong with the players.
Tecmo Sim: Giants 27 Chargers 9
Evan Ingram leads the receiving group as Eli Manning leads the team to their first win.
Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 38.5.
Ryan’s Pick: Bills
There is some question as to whether or not the Bills are for real. I tend to think they are. Are they really a team that beats the Falcons at home with regularity, maybe not, but are they skillful enough to pull it off maybe 4 out of 10 times? I’ll say yes.
Their new coach Sean McDermott has this team playing smart sound football as opposed to the Rex Ryan, New York City drama fest it was a year ago (not sure why I’m so angry at New York today).
To date, the Bills only real loss came at the hands of the Panthers when the offense scored only 3 points. The defense in that game held the Panthers to just 9 points. The offense followed up that performance by putting up 26 points on the Denver Broncos. I’m not sure what happened in Carolina but this team should absolutely be 4-0 right now.
On the other side of the field, the Cincinnati Bengals seems to have transformed into an offensive powerhouse since Bill Lazor took over but I’m not sure if putting up 24 on a banged up Packers defense and 31 on the Browns should really be seen as the new norm for them, especially now going against one of the better defenses in the league.
Finally, I specifically recall Mr. Tony Romo explain that a team gets a 2 week bump after a new OC takes over. After that, teams have plenty of tape on you and start to figure you out. A good defense playing good football against a paper dragon? This seems too easy.
Jon’s Pick: Bills
I’m not buying into the Bengals suddenly being good on offense. I think Andy Dalton’s last two weeks have enamored people to the Bengals, but let’s be realistic, if they didn’t suck so much in the first place, everyone would think that Dalton had two pretty typical weeks for a decent quarterback. Dalton threw for 212 and 2 TDs against the Packers, and then lit up the Browns. Newsflash: 212 and 2 TDs isn’t even that good, and the Browns are terrible, so who cares that the Bengals beat the brakes off of them? This week, the Bengals face off against one of the league’s top defenses, one that likes taking the ball away from opposing offenses, which usually doesn’t go well for Dalton.
Tecmo Sim: Bills 23 Bengals 14
Paper dragon indeed. Although the Bengals do find the end zone, they look a lot more like weeks 1 and 2 than 3 and 4.
New York Jets (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)
Line: Pick. Total: 39.
Ryan’s Pick: Jets
This one simply comes down to the fact that the Jets seem to be getting better on both offense and defense while the Browns seem to be getting worse, at least defensively.
The outlier in this game, minus the volatility and overall suckness of both teams, is Browns first round draft pick. Given how close this game is in my head, a guy like Garrett could make the difference. He is a different kind of player and looked really good in the preseason. If he gets going and can disrupt the game, it may swing in the Browns direction.
Still, I’m taking the hot hand.
Jon’s Pick: Jets
How could I possibly pick Cleveland? The Jets two wins came at home, so maybe that’s something I should consider, but this is Cleveland that we’re talking about. The Browns can’t stop anyone from scoring, but the Jets defense is good enough to stop Cleveland from scoring too much. I don’t like this pick, I just can’t pick the Browns.
Tecmo Sim: Jets 37 Browns 21
Although nobody sees the Browns as a legitimate football team, 37 points would be another week that has us wondering if the Jets are for real.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Line: Steelers by 8.5. Total: 43.5.
Ryan’s Pick: Jaguars
When I first got to this pick I immediately wrote Steelers and began researching why they are going to win. As I looked at it, though, it became a little more fuzzy and ultimately I settled on the Jags. Even now I’m doubting my pick. The Steelers seem to be picking up steam and are playing home for only the second time. The only other time they trounced the Vikings 26-9.
Still, the Vikings were in the midst of disaster and played terrible football in their first week without Bradford. Their other two wins came by way of the Browns (a near loss) and the Ravens. The only other team they played were the Bears and they lost that game.
In other words they have played 4 pretty terrible teams and are 3-1. The Jaguars aren’t fantastic either but their defense is lethal right now and they have a very good running back, which is where I finally settled. The Jags D has the talent to neutralize the Steelers passing attack and Bell, although scary, is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and 87 yards per game.
Finally, the 3 games the Steelers won, they allowed less than 100 yards rushing. Their 1 loss to the Bears, the Steelers allowed 222 yards on the ground. If the Jaguars are smart they pound Leonard Fournette, rush for well over 100 yards, and win the game.
Jon’s Pick: Steelers
I’m taking Pittsburgh at home this week. They came together in a big way on the road last week, and they’ve always been good at home. Jacksonville is just too inconsistent to win on the road this week.
Tecmo Sim: Steelers 45 Jaguars 14
Bell runs for 172 yards. There is literally 0 chance the Jaguars win with a stat like that.
Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)
Ryan’s Pick: Dolphins
When the Titans win it’s because their offense puts up a lot of points. If the offense isn’t playing out of their mind, they lose. With their quarterback hobbled with a hamstring issue, I don’t see this team putting up a lot of point.
The question is, can the Dolphins score any points. They have put up 6 points over there last 2 games, only putting up double digit points once scoring 19 against the 0-4 Chargers, beating them by only 2 points.
In the end I settled on the fact that the Dolphins can’t play from behind but won’t have to in this game. They will be able to pump Ajayi with 25 carries and put up just enough points to win this game.
Jon’s Pick: Dolphins
Tennessee has been awfully frustrating this season. I thought they’d be more consistent than they have been, and now Marcus Mariota’s hurt again. Miami is bad, and Jay Cutler is playing like a guy who couldn’t care less about football, but was given an offer he couldn’t refuse, so I feel awful picking them, but I don’t trust Matt Cassel to play well enough to beat anyone, so I’m compelled to choose Miami.
Tecmo Sim: Titans 24 Dolphins 28
Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry make this a more exciting game than most would expect but in the end Cutler is actually able to pull it off. Who’da thought.
San Francisco 49ers (0-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 44.5.
Ryan’s Pick: 49ers
This one was almost literally a coin flip. They both have lost to the exact same teams (Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals) with the exception of 1 each. The 49ers got stomped by the Panthers and the Colts narrowly beat the Browns. That tells me nothing.
I want to lean on Brissett and T.Y. but I just can’t. Their offense is no good. It’s the same reason I can’t lean on the top interior defender in the NFL, DeForest Buckner to make any real impact for the 49ers. If either of them had the ability to impact games they wouldn’t both be garbage teams.
With that I simply looked at the fact that the 49ers at least have some redeemable qualities. They are one of the better teams against the run going up against the Colts who run a ton. Furthermore, the Colts have given up more points this year than any other team in the NFL. If the 49ers were ever going to score points (They put up 39 against the Rams) this is going to be the game.
Jon’s Pick: 49ers
This is another pick of which I am not overly fond. We have a matchup of two teams that are kind of bad, but that have also looked kind of good against bad competition, so this is a bit difficult to figure. I like the Niners offensive potential better than the Colts, though. I don’t want to get overly excited about the outlier game for them, but they did score 39 against the Rams. I think the 49ers are just more talented all around than the Colts, and they absolutely have a better coach, and so I think they’ll get their first win of the season this week. Let me explain that last sentence: Chuck Pagano’s best season was the season that Bruce Arians took over as head coach. Pagano and the GM in Indy should have been fired years ago.
Tecmo Sim: 49ers 14 Colts 21
Frank Gore is a beast that will not quit, putting up 160 yards on only 10 carries.
Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 45.
Ryan’s Pick: Eagles
Carson Palmer is getting sacked more than anyone in the NFL thanks to his horrific offensive line. After losing Johnson for the year, the Cardinals have no real run threat and have now become completely 1 dimensional. It’s actually similar to the situation the Packers have been in but to a much more dire extent and without the same level of talent.
What all this means is that the Cardinals have to rely on quick passes to win football games. It might mean a lot of receptions for Fitz, but it isn’t going to lead to a lot of wins.
Jon’s Pick: Eagles
Arizona is scraping past the bottom dwellers this season. Their offensive line can’t keep Palmer upright, nor can it create holes for their running backs. They gave up six sacks to the 49ers last week, who had only four heading into that game. This week, they’re playing a team that has posted four sack games twice this season, and also likes taking the ball away. Things could get ugly, really ugly. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense is good enough to score on pretty much anyone (their lowest point total was 20 against KC), and considering that they might find themselves in favorable field positions for a good portion of the game, this seems like the obvious choice.
Tecmo Sim: Cardinals 30 Eagles 17
Tecmo clearly foresees what no other sports fan can see. A complete turnaround for the Arizona Cardinals. Could it be so?
Carolina Panthers (3-1) at Detroit Lions (3-1)
Line: Lions by 2.5. Total: 43.
Ryan’s Pick: Lions
I predicted the Panthers would beat the Patriots but it was entirely based on their matchup against a team that can’t generate a pass rush. The Lions defense is actually pretty good this year and although the Carolina D could keep this a low scoring game, the Lions offense should be entirely too much for the Panthers to keep up.
I also expect a poor performance from Cam. He’s an unbelievably emotional player and not in a good way. With this insane controversy surrounding his comments to a female reporter, Cam is the kind of player who will get in his own head and not be able to recover.
Jon’s Pick: Lions
The Panthers shocked a lot of people last week when they beat the Patriots, but should anyone have been surprised? The Patriots struggle terribly to generate a pass rush, which allows Cam to sit back and wait for deep passes to open up, and from what I understand (because I didn’t watch the game), that’s exactly what happened. As weird as it is to say this, the Lions have a much better defense than the Patriots, and they have a capable offense, too. I like the Lions in a close contest, probably similar to last week’s game.
Tecmo Sim: Lions 21 Panthers 28
The Panthers offense finally is able to get rolling as Christian McCaffrey runs for over 100 yards.
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
Line: Rams by 1. Total: 46.5.
Ryan’s Pick: Rams
Very much torn on this game and I think, despite being a divisional game, this might answer a few questions. Are the Rams for real? Are the Seahawks coming to life or was the Colts game an anomoly?
So far the Seahawks have scored more every week and Wilson has looked really impressive. The Rams on the other hand have been putting up a ton of points all year. With that, I tend to think this game will be unlike the 13-9 games we’ve seen in years past. This could be a high scoring affair.
Although the fact that the Rams have had the Seahawks number over the years is a factor, it isn’t much of one in my mind. This is a different Rams team with a different coach and a different approach to football, and all of those past games feel all but out the window.
For me this came down to 1 thing. To beat the Rams you have to stop Gurley. It has yet to be done in 2017 and the Seahawks seem like hardly the team to find a way.
Jon’s Pick: Rams
I like what Todd Gurley is doing this season, and I don’t like what Seattle is bringing to the table too much. Their defense is great against the pass, but they’re giving up 5 per carry on the ground. Their offense has played well against bad competition, but I think the Rams have enough athleticism to limit Russell Wilson’s scrambling, which usually means that the Seahawks don’t score very many points. Chris Carson is down, too, and I’m not sure how good I feel about their ground game being led by Cheeseburger Eddie Lacy.
Tecmo Sim: Rams 28 Seahawks 21
Everyone seems to expect Gurley to keep rolling in week 5 and Tecmo is no different, predicting 146 yards on the ground.
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-1)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 40.
Ryan’s Pick: Ravens
I’m baffled at the fact that either of these teams will get a win this week. The Raiders with no Carr and a running back that can’t get going vs. the Ravens who employ the most overpaid backup in the NFL. Seriously he’s terrible.
Still, I like the Ravens chances to pick up the scraps left by the Raiders who have officially fallen apart.
Jon’s Pick: Ravens
I wouldn’t take them if Carr was starting, but he isn’t. I’m looking for the Ravens D to step up big-time this week, and maybe their offense will get back on the rails (although they won’t be impressive because they’re probably not capable of that).
Tecmo Sim: Ravens 21 Raiders 13
Without Derek Carr the team simply won’t go.
Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Line: Cowboys by 2.5. Total: 52.5.
Ryan’s Pick: Packers
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous but setting aside the fan in me, this game is very simple. The Packers have been the better team for a long time and in 2017 the Packers have been beating teams with seemingly insurmountable injuries. The now healthier Packers team is set to play a Cowboys team that is a shell of its 2016 self.
Jon’s Pick: Packers
I’m taking the upset here. Dallas has all the reason in the world to dominate this game, just as they have every other week, but they’re finding ways to blow games, and they’re moving a lot closer to .500 this season, where Garrett’s overall coaching record likes to hover; Garrett is 60-47 lifetime with the Cowboys, and last week’s game showed us the exact reason for that: he makes really stupid decisions down the stretch that cost his team the game, like passing the ball a bunch of times instead of running it down the opponent’s throat for 5 yards per carry. I think he’ll do something equally stupid this week to lose the game.
Tecmo Sim: Packers 34 Cowboys 28
Okay so I forgot to take out Ty Montgomery. My bad. But the guy had 7 yards! Not like it makes a difference. Besides, Aaron Rodgers over 300 yards and Davante Adams over 100 yards receiving, it doesn’t matter if anyone is running the ball.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Houston Texans (2-2)
Line: Chiefs by 1.5. Total: 47.
Ryan’s Pick: Chiefs
Some of the folks over at the PFF podcast are acting as though this game will be revolutionary. I think that’s sort of silly. It will answer quite a few questions, however. Namely, are the Texans for real. This is their test. Win this game and the Texans are officially a force to be reckoned with.
That said, the Texans are a young team and I can feel the instability in them. Put up 50 one week, get blown out the next. Typically those types of teams don’t fare well against solid disciplined football teams. I think the Chiefs are just that and I believe they win this game.
Jon’s Pick: Texans
This is a hard one for me. I’m not buying into the Texans just yet, but I don’t know how KC is going to stop DeAndre Hopkins, nor do I like the 20th ranked rush defense against Lamar Miller. It all hinges on Deshaun Watson, who’s playing under the bright, primetime lights for the first time in his short NFL season. Watson wasn’t fazed against the powerhouse of college football in the national championship, though, so I don’t think SNF will negatively impact his performance.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are playing against a talented defense with a lot to prove. They’re the 14th ranked rushing D, allowing 3.7 yards per carry, and they’re playing the most dynamic rookie HB we’ve seen in years.
I’m torn, but I’m taking Houston.
Tecmo Sim: Chiefs 10 Texans 38
Tecmo is all aboard the Texans hype train!
Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Chicago Bears (1-3)
Ryan’s Pick: Vikings
I’ll be honest, this might be the first Bears Vikings game I’m legitimately excited to watch. I’ve been a fan of Mitch Trubisky for some time now and have been screaming that the Bears are dumb for not playing him. Now, on Monday night, on a night when Sam Bradford returns we get to see the debut of the Bears new franchise quarterback.
All that said, the Vikings offense is a lot better than the Bears defense and the Vikings defense is way better than the Bears offense. This isn’t even close in my mind.
Jon’s Pick: Vikings
Bradford should be back, and while the Bears are starting Trubisky for the first time ever, they don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to win this game. Hopefully it’ll be a fun one, but I have a feeling all the fun will be for Minnesota fans.
Tecmo Sim: Vikings 10 Bears 24
Bradford, on the other hand, Tecmo is not on that hype train at all.