As we prepare for week 7 of the 2017 NFL season, Packernet has decided to put our predictive powers to the test. Each week we will give you our picks and see how we stack up.
*Special guest predictions by Tecmo Bowl, courtesy of Sgt. Nathaniel Buschmann, currently serving in Iraq*
Tennessee Titans (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-6)
Line: Titans by 5.5. Total: 45.5.
Ryan’s Pick: Titans
There is the tiniest part of me that’s worried. The Titans have lost some weird games to some sub par teams. They also are walking into what they believe is a gimme the week before a bye which is a recipe for extremely sub par play.
Still, the Browns have not won a single game and have really not even come close to winning one. I suppose coming within 3 is sort of close but, man is this team terrible.
Jon’s Pick: Titans
I’m picking against Cleveland until they give me a reason to second guess myself.
Tecmo Sim: Titans 23 Browns 21
Crowell is a good back. He put up over 150 yards in this game. Unfortunately nothing around him is very good. Better luck next year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-4)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 43.5
Ryan’s Pick: Jaguars
The Jaguars are weird. Although they seem to be a team that is a quarterback away from being a dominant force, it’s been their defense that is inconsistent. Here are the scores against so far this year; 7, 37, 7, 23, 9, 27. They have alternated wins and losses ever week based on the performance of their defense.
This week, if things stay the same is a win week. Considering the game is against the Colts, I don’t find that hard to believe.
Jon’s Pick: Jaguars
This is an easy pick for me. I’m shocked that the spread is only 3 this week. Indianapolis is just bad. Even with Fournette likely out this game, the Jaguars defense is too good for the Colts.
Tecmo Sim: Jaguars 16 Colts 42
The Jaguars have the talent to be one of the best teams in the league. Unfortunately they like to lose too much and when they lose they do it in spectacular fashion.
Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
Line: Vikings by 5.5. Total: 39
Ryan’s Pick: Vikings
I wanted very badly to pick the Ravens because the Vikings are very much overrated. Their 2 game win streak came on the back of a pathetic Bears team and a Packers team that couldn’t eclipse 10 points.
Still, the Ravens just lost to the Bears last week in overtime and don’t match up well against the Vikings. Strangely, the Ravens have been leaning on the run quite a bit and the Vikings, as we learned, don’t give up much in the run.
Jon’s Pick: Vikings
How could I possibly pick Baltimore after last week’s game? I can’t. Minnesota isn’t a team against which struggling offenses find their stride. It’s unlikely that Minnesota will allow multiple special teams touchdowns like the Bears did. And since the Ravens offense can’t score points, I’m not sure how they’ll score this week. Minnesota should win by a lot.
Tecmo Sim: Vikings 20 Ravens 10
Just like that, the NFC North begins to slip through our fingers.
New York Jets (3-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 38
Ryan’s Pick: Jets
Unbelievably torn on this. The Dolphins defense has not given up more than 20 points in a single game. They have played the Titans, the Chargers, and the Falcons in Atlanta and have not given up more than 20 points. That’s absolutely insane. What’s really crazy is that their defense isn’t that great. Their players are mediocre and their stats are slightly better than average. They are a true bend don’t break defense.
The problem with the Dolphins is that they have also never put up more than 20 points. Let me rephrase that. There has never been a score of more than 20 points by either team through 5 Miami Dolphins games. In other words, don’t watch Dolphins games.
With that, I could only draw a few conclusions in this game. First, the Dolphins can beat the best in the NFL but can also lose to the worst in the NFL. Second, the Jets are relatively consistent, beating bad teams but losing to good teams.
Considering the Dolphins aren’t “good” and the fact that the Jets already beat them once, I’ll take the safe route and pick the Jets.
Jon’s Pick: Jets
The Jets should be looking for a fifth consecutive win, but NFL referees are horribly incompetent. They apply rules inconsistently even when it’s the same people making decisions for every game. It’s really unbelievable. With that out of the way, I don’t have good reasons for liking the Jets. I don’t like Miami’s inconsistency, and I don’t trust Cutler to not kill the team with either stupid throws, or downright laziness.
Tecmo Sim: Jets 31 Dolphins 28
Congrats to the Jets for their most recent victory in the losers bracket.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Ryan’s Pick: Bills
The Bills defense has also not allowed more than 20 points in a game. Considering the Buccs have really not done much this year other than beat a terrible Bears teams after their week 1 bye and win against the Bengals in a close matchup, I’m not a fan of the banged up Winston taking on this defense.
Jon’s Pick: Buccaneers
Buffalo’s loss to Cincinnati came as a tremendous shock to me. I’d be less shocked if they lost this game. The Bucs have looked great as a whole in two games this season, and their offense looked great in three. The Bills have a hard time scoring points against anyone with all the injuries they have. On top of having a mediocre quarterback, they have absolutely no one to throw to with both Matthews and Charles Clay out. It’s possible that Matthews returns this week, but who knows what impact he’ll have. The Bucs have a dangerous offense that can score against the best teams when they’re clicking. With E.J. Gaines questionable for Sunday’s game, I like Tampa’s chances even more, since that’ll take away just about any fear of throwing to Evans or Jackson on that side of the field.
Tecmo Sim: Bills 24 Buccaneers 14
LeSean McCoy runs wild for 173 yards. Hard to overcome that.
Carolina Panthers (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 40.5
Ryan’s Pick: Panthers
Although last week taught us that nothing is a certainty and the Bears have a weird ability to beat teams that are way better than they are, the Panthers have only lost two games and they were to arguably the two best teams in the NFL (Saints and Eagles). The Bears are not even in that conversation.
Jon’s Pick: Bears
On the surface, Carolina’s defensive strength matches up well against Chicago’s offensive strength. I think it’s a bit difficult to know just how good Carolina’s rushing defense is considering how little teams run against them. And I want to think Carolina has an overall good team, but are they? Newton still struggles to throw intermediate routes, and he turns the ball over too often (which is why they lost against the Eagles last week). The Bears have played much better defense than even hardcore Bears fans expected, and their running game is one of the league’s best. They’re not doing it on volume alone, either. The Bears running game is shockingly efficient for a team that can do nothing but run, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Running the ball down the throats of an overrated rushing defense will bring the Bears their first two game win streak since weeks 9 and 10 in 2015.
Tecmo Sim: Panthers 14 Bears 24
The Panthers are way to talented to beat the Bears. It makes sense.
New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)
Line: Saints by 4.5. Total: 47.5
Ryan’s Pick: Saints
It’s never fun to pick against the Packers. I did it once before against the Falcons and it wasn’t fun then either but I know when this team is in a tough spot. In this game the Packers lost Rodgers, lost their offensive line, lost their corners, and are going up against a Saints team that is every bit as good on offense as they’ve always been but have struck gold with a couple corners that are maybe the best duo in the NFL.
Crazy what a couple high picks can do for a team isn’t it…?
Jon’s Pick: Saints
Let’s be honest, Capers defense has been garbage for years now. The last time the Packers were a top 10 defense was 2010, and they’ve been in the bottom half of the league at least three years since then. That Capers is still employed amazes me every week. That the Packers have won so many games is a testament to Rodgers greatness. Their success has so little to do with anything else about the team, and
his absence will show that starting this week. New Orleans is going to beat Green Bay as though the Packers are personally responsible for hurricane Katrina.
Tecmo Sim: Saints 28 Packers 24
The Packers put up a good fight but the Saints were just too much to handle.
Arizona Cardinals (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 46.5
Ryan’s Pick: Rams
I want to ride high on the A.P. train and I do think the Cardinals are going to start looking like their 2016 self as a result of Peterson joining the team. Still, the Cardinals defense gives up far too many points, including 33 last week to the Buccs.
The Rams are not the Rams of old, and have more than enough ability to rack up points, already having put up 40+ points twice.
Ultimately I like the Rams defense to stop the Cardinals more than I like the Cardinals defense to stop the Rams.
Jon’s Pick: Cardinals
I don’t think Peterson’s game was a fluke. Tampa Bay’s rushing defense is certainly better than the Rams, who have proven time and time again to be amongst the league’s worst. Somehow, their 20 sacks have only translated to a 17th overall passing defense. If Peterson gets off to a good start again like I think he will, the Rams pass rush will slow down tremendously. This could be a high scoring game today.
Tecmo Sim: Cardinals 30 Rams 14
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to start taking the Cardinals seriously.
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (0-6)
Line: Cowboys by 6. Total: 47
Ryan’s Pick: Cowboys
I want desperately to pick the 49ers here. The Cowboys have yet to beat a team that isn’t terrible and the 49ers are just a handful of points away from being 5-1. Everything in my bones is screaming to pick the 49ers.
But, with Zeke still not suspended thanks to the true owners of the NFL, the United States government, you have to like the Cowboys level of talent compared to the 49ers.
Jon’s Pick: Cowboys
C.J. Beathard provided a major boost to the 49ers offense last week, but it wasn’t enough. Dallas has beaten up on the bad teams that they’ve played this season. They’re also in a tough spot, needing a win to stay in the NFC East playoff race. Maybe Garrett will lean on Elliot the way he should with late game leads this week, and they’ll win easily. Either way, Dallas should take this one.
Tecmo Sim: Cowboys 7 49ers 28
Terrance Williams is the top receiver with 28 yards. The 49ers aren’t a good team but how do you lose a game like that? You don’t.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Line: Steelers by 5.5. Total: 41
Ryan’s Pick: Steelers
Neither team is all that impressive. Perhaps the only impressive win between the two teams is the Steelers win over the Chiefs and even there the Steelers were only able to put up 19 points. Fortunately for them, the Chiefs impoded and couldn’t scrape together a 20 point game.
Still, I think the Steelers have the better team and I’ll trust that to win out.
Jon’s Pick: Steelers
Pittsburgh has got to be the most confusing team in the league this season. They scrape past the Browns, kill the Vikings, and then lose the Chicago, so we all start to think it’s just their road struggles showing up again. Except the next weak they beat the brakes off the Ravens, only to get smoked against the Jaguars at home the following week. Somehow, at the count of 9, they rise from the mat and score a knockout win against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. They’re like a Rocky movie. The Bengals offense is overly reliant on AJ Green, who Joe Haden has a history of slowing down. In 8 NFL
games against the Browns with Joe Haden, Green has 35 catches for 474 yards and 4 TDs, which amounts to about 4 catches and 60 yards per game. Dave Bryan at Steelers Depot broke it down further and found that AJ Green had 19 passes for 323 yards and 2 TDs against Joe Haden, and that one of the TDs came on a busted coverage that resulted from Dalton snapping the ball before the Browns D was set. That’s good news for Steelers fans, bad news for Cincy’s winning prospects. It’s hard to pick Pittsburgh given their erratic behavior, but I think I’m okay taking them to beat the Bengals.
Tecmo Sim: Bengals 28 Steelers 14
Dalton throws 2 picks, Mixon runs for under 100 yards, Jeremy Hill is the top receiver. How in the world that leads to 28 points and a victory over the Steelers, I have no idea. But that’s Tecmo!
Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at New York Giants (1-5)
Line: Seahawks by 5. Total: 40
Ryan’s Pick: Seahawks
I haven’t the slightest clue how the Giants won last week but I have to believe it had more to do with the Broncos imploding than anything. The Giants are still a team in the midst of a disaster.
The Seahawks are perennial Super Bowl contenders. The one thing to note is the location of the game. The Seahawks will have to fly to the other side of the country. That does have an impact.
I still take the Seahawks.
Jon’s Pick: Seattle
There’s just no way New York surprises another team. They have nothing on offense, and a mediocre defense. Even if the Giants run the ball well, Seattle is used to giving up 100+ on the ground and winning, unlike Denver.
Tecmo Sim: Seattle 34 Giants 7
Just in case anyone thought the Giants were for real.
Denver Broncos (3-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)
Line: Pick. Total: 40.5
Ryan’s Pick: Chargers
This feels like a stupid pick. The Broncos are great and the Chargers are terrible right? Strangely, the Chargers are on a 2 game win streak and the Broncos lost 2 of 3, one of which was to the Giants after a bye week.
The issue with the Broncos seems to be an offense that hasn’t put up more than 16 points in 3 weeks. The Chargers don’t allow a ton of points and their offense should have enough fire power to put up 20.
I like the Chargers to outpace a Broncos defense that is on the ropes.
Jon’s Pick: Broncos
This is entirely a fanhood pick. My brain tells me to prepare for more disappointment today as the Broncos take on the Chargers without Emmanuel Sanders. But I hate the Chargers so much, and love the Broncos so much more that I can’t bring myself to pick against them. There’s some reason to think that Denver might win though… There won’t be any negative impacts from crowd noise, for instance. And Denver’s D is probably looking for blood after last week’s horrific showing.
Tecmo Sim: Broncos 21 Chargers 24
Like 2 ships passing in the night, the Chargers are starting to figure this football thing out. The Broncos seem to have had their moment.
Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at New England Patriots (4-2)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 56
Ryan’s Pick: Falcons
Enough is enough. The Patriots have been stealing wins away from garbage teams. Now they go toe to toe with one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Falcons haven’t put up many points the last two weeks but the Dolphins and Bills are tough. The Patriots defense is one of the worst in the NFL.
I like the Falcons to get their groove back and embarrass the team that embarrassed them in the Super Bowl
Jon’s Pick: Falcons
I don’t think Atlanta is very good, but I think they’ll beat New England. The Patriots can’t play defense with all their starters in, and this week they’re missing Stephon Gilmore, and Eric Rowe. That’s really bad against a team that can score like the Falcons can. The Falcons should be able to take advantage of a defense that can neither generate a pass rush, nor cover receivers this Sunday night.
Tecmo Sim: Patriots 20 Falcons 7
Oh come ON!!!
Washington Redskins (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)
Line: Eagles by 4.5. Total: 49
Ryan’s Pick: Eagles
The Eagles haven’t given me a reason to doubt them. End of story.
Jon’s Pick: Eagles
I like the Redskins, and I think they’re a better team than most people seem to think, but Philly is red hot, and they have a lot of offensive fire power. I think I would feel a lot differently if Norman were playing, but I think the Redskins have too many injuries to overcome this week. They’re almost lost to the 49ers, who are nowhere near as good as Philly. It’s a divisional game, so you never know what’ll happen, but I’m feeling pretty good about this pick.
Tecmo Sim: Eagles 38 Redskins 7
Tecmo is all aboard the Eagles hype train these days.