The Green Bay Packers were projected to go all the way to the Super Bowl this past year. At one point in the regular season, the team had the best odds to win Super Bowl LVI.
Then San Francisco happened and their Super Bowl dreams died to the surprise of many. Truth be told, many betting experts knew the 49ers were going to win the divisional round.
Why, you ask? Experienced Wisconsin sports betting experts know how to read football odds better than the public. They know what factors to check to determine the true chances of a team winning a football game.
In light of that information, this article shares tips on how to interpret betting odds. In doing so, you can maximize your profits whether you want to wager on Green Bay or any other football team. Let’s get started.
Money Line Bets
Money line betting is one of the most popular bet types in the NFL. That’s alright. Predicting the winning side is fairly simple if you watch football regularly.
The only challenge is to understand the odds. Usually, bookmakers in the US use Vegas odds. These odds are based on betting $100 on the underdog or the favorite.
Underdogs tend to have odds preceded by a positive sign, say +130. By comparison, favorites have odds preceded by a negative sign (-130). An example is the Packers (+200) to defeat the Cowboys (-140 at home).
- Packers to win: +200
- Cowboys to win: -140
In this game, the Cowboys are the favorites. If you think they can defeat the Packers, you need to spend $140 to win $100. But if you think the bookies are wrong, you need to bet $100 on the Packers to win $200. In both cases, you also get your stake back.
Point Spreads/Line Betting
Point spreads challenge you to predict the points difference in a football game. In other words, you predict the winner of a game and their margin of victory. The main benefit is that you get better odds than simply placing a money line bet.
Many experienced football betters prefer to bet against the spread compared to money line bets. Sure, it’s easier to predict a game between Green Bay and the Cleveland Browns.
The Packers have defeated Cleveland 14 times in the last 21 games. As such, you can easily back Green Bay to win in a game between the two sides. But can you predict the margin on victory?
- Green Bay to win by +7
- Green Bay to win by -7
- Cleveland to win by +7
- Cleveland to win by -7
Should you bet on point spreads or money line bets? If you’re a first time-better, focus on predicting football games correctly. Once you gain some experience, you can graduate to line betting.
Total Bets
Betting on totals means predicting the average number points scored in a football game. Here, you look at the history of two opponents. You check each side’s offense and defense rankings, form and each side’s scoring record against better and lower ranked side.
Let’s use the example of Cincinnati Bengals versus Los Angeles Rams—the two contenders for SB LVI. Before LA won, it had been averaging 27.1 points per game while conceding an average of 21 points.
Likewise, the Bengals had been scoring over 27 points while conceding an average of 20 points. In light of that information, it was easy to say SB LVI would involve more than 40 points. Indeed, the game ended 23-20 in favor of Los Angeles.
Sometimes sportsbooks also provide the total number of points for each team in the NFL. In the example above, Cincinnati had -108 odds to score more than 21.5 points and -112 odds to score fewer than 21.5 points.
On the other end, some bookies favored the Rams to score Over 26.5 points at -112 odds and Unver 21.5 points at -108 odds.
Parlays
Calculating the value of a parlay bet can be confusing. But guess what? It’s essential for you to differentiate good from not-so-great odds. For the uninitiated, a parlay is an accumulation of multiple bets into one betting slip.
The biggest benefit is that it magnifies your potential profits. Imagine predicting five points spreads’ games with an average of +150 odds. You could win more than $2000 from a $100 bet.
Unfortunately, you must predict all matches correctly for you to win a parlay bet. Predict four games correctly and lose one of them and your entire bet is a loss.
Some sportsbooks offer an early, partial cashout if all the games in your parlay except for the final game have been correct so far. They offer 50% to 70% of your potential profit if you’re willing to cancel your bet with one game to go.
Calculating the Odds of a Parlay
Bookmakers provide parlay odds in one of two ways; fixed odds or true odds. With fixed odds, a sportsbook can pick three teams where each team has -110 odds to win.
On the flip side, there’s true odds. Here, each team has unique odds of winning. And you can combine multiple bets to form a parlay. Needless to say, you should strive to create parlays using true odds.
To calculate the total odds, use this formula:
- Win + risk divided by your stake
Let’s say the Dolphins have +170 odds. You need to bet $100 to win $170. Add 170 to 100 (270), then divide by your $100 stake. The result is 1.8. Repeat the same procedure for all the teams you want to add to your parlay and add the results.
In all fairness, most bookmakers do the calculations for you. All you need is to choose a team and add it to your parlay betting slip.
Props
If you think you can predict the NFL regular season MVP, the Super Bowl MVP, the divisional winners or the SB championship, you need to check out prop bets. They involve hard to predict football outcomes. But the odds are pretty impressive.
Word to the wise: bet on props fully aware the chances of predicting such an outcome correctly are low. Most people lose prop bets. But you can place a good prop for the fun of it. If you’re correct, you could win up to 100x your stake.